Brit Tzedek v’Shalom

Jewish Alliance for Justice and Peace

Haaretz

June 20, 2006

Palestinians might not pass a statehood referendum called by Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas because many see the vote as a symbol of his power struggle with the Hamas government, a leading pollster said on Monday. While 75 percent of Palestinians in a new survey said they support a manifesto for statehood that implicitly recognizes Israel, only 47 percent said they would vote in favor of the document if a referendum were held on it today.

The survey by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research said 44 percent would vote against.

"The referendum is a bad idea for Abu Mazen," said Khalil Shikaki, the director of the research center, referring to Abbas by his nickname. "The sympathy, when it comes to the referendum, is with the underdog, and in this case that is Hamas."

"Most people like the document as it stands, but the climate of opinion is not in favour of a referendum," he added.

Abbas has said he will hold a referendum on the document on July 26 unless Hamas, which took office in March, agrees to support it.

Islamic Jihad announced Monday that it is rejecting the plan because it implicitly recognized the state of Israel.

Khader Habib, an Islamic Jihad leader in Gaza, told the Associated Press that the movement was "rejecting the main points in the prisoners' document ... therefore Islamic Jihad is not willing to sign the agreement."

Hamas opposes key parts of the proposal, which was drawn up by influential prisoners in an Israeli jail. The Islamist group is officially sworn to destroy the Jewish state.

However, there are indications that Hamas and Abbas's Fatah movement may agree on a reworked document in the days ahead, which could cancel the need for a referendum and ease tensions.

Around 20 people have been killed in fighting between gunmen from Hamas and Fatah in the past month in the Gaza Strip.

The results of the survey, which polled 1,270 adults between June 15-18, are likely to encourage moderation by both sides, Shikaki said, with Abbas edging away from a referendum showdown and Hamas cautiously supporting a popular document.

"We might finally be seeing the debate giving way to the more moderate wing of Hamas," said Shikaki.

He said that acceptance of the document would mean Hamas would implicitly acknowledge Israel's existence and the supremacy of the umbrella Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and the need to limit attacks against the Jewish state.

If Hamas and Fatah end up agreeing on the prisoners' document, it is possible that a new government of national unity could be formed in the months ahead, political observers say.

According to Shikaki's survey, 85 percent of Palestinians would support the establishment of such a government.

The survey also showed no gap in the level of support for Hamas and Fatah five months after Hamas heavily defeated Fatah in parliamentary elections. If elections were held today, both factions would receive 39 percent of the vote, the poll showed.

Three months ago, the gap stood at eight points, with Hamas garnering 47 percent support and Fatah 39 percent.